This Ends in Antioch wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
The union has a disconnect in their arguments:
1. Expanded playoffs mean that teams won't spend money on premium players and instead try to sneak in with 84 wins.
2. Not expanding playoffs means that teams won't spend the incremental money on the bottom half of their lineups and rotations to go from a 68-70 win team to a 77-80 win team, but they think owners should be obligated to spend the guaranteed money anyway.
Can't have it both ways.
I think it goes back to the middle class v. superstar dynamic. The union seems more interested in the high profile contracts than the whole membership.
I’d think the expanded playoff would lead teams to spend more on marginally better/proven talent if they’re close to playoff caliber.
But they might not spend the $165M guaranteed on Javy Baez.
Most players never get to third year arbitration. They simply aren't good enough compared to a AAAA type to command a raise and guaranteed money even for that year. Brian Goodwin is an example of that type of guy, better than a AAAA guy like Rafael Ortega with the eye test when they were both in the Angels organization but not so much better that a team would invest $4M in him to go through the arb process instead of putting $550k on either a fungible AAAA type or starting the clock on a prospect like Gavin Sheets. A team can then invest the remaining $3.5M on someone else, using to pay down a bad contract, or in the case of uncle Jerry just pocketing it.
Other leagues get around this problem by not guaranteeing contracts. MLB just non-tenders guys. Some sort of NHL-ish RFA should be in place in lieu of 3rd year arbitration, but neither side will accept it.
MLB should make concessions which help grow the size of the union: 32 teams by 2028, 28-man rosters and increasing the 40-man to 45. MLBPA should make concessions around horrible long term guaranteed contracts but agents will throw a fit. Meanwhile expand the playoffs to 16 teams but give teams with a 10+ game difference in the first round an automatic win in lieu of Game 1, and those with a 20+ game difference two automatic wins. Give the current players a split of expansion fees to be retroactively paid out to players between 2022-2027 as a bonus based on playing time.