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 Post subject: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:57 am 
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I had Fla -3 last week! Now at -5.5????

Money pouring in on FLA!

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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:27 am 
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bigfan wrote:
I had Fla -3 last week! Now at -5.5????

Money pouring in on FLA!


Thoughts on this game coming soon.


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:57 am 
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It's tough to play a game that has swung about three points. I love Florida. I hate that the line has moved and I hate that so many other people love them. However, the same thing happened with Tulsa/Ball State and Tulsa smoked them.

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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:59 am 
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Is 54 the Over/under? Seems low


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:10 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Is 54 the Over/under? Seems low


No, it's around 69 or 70. It's been moving down some after being in the low 70's.


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:50 am 
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Late money poured in on Notre Dame, Florida State, Oregon, Ole Miss, and Tulsa, and they all took care of business.

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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:51 am 
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BD wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Is 54 the Over/under? Seems low


No, it's around 69 or 70. It's been moving down some after being in the low 70's.


Guy in my office likes to sound like he knows what he is talking about gave me 54. I will now heckle him roundly


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:05 pm 
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Better than that, make a bet with him on the over, then find "a guy" (conveniently enough there are some in rogers park) and throw the same amount on the under 70.

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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:16 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
Better than that, make a bet with him on the over, then find "a guy" (conveniently enough there are some in rogers park) and throw the same amount on the under 70.

I wouldnt enter into any thing like that with this douchebag. Hes a degenerate gambler. The most annoying kind of degenerate gambler, one who has to come into work and tell everyone every bet horse or whatever bet he made the night b4.

Funny thing is he always wins according to him. Somehow Im skeptikal.


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:44 pm 
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The DeMarco Murray absence is being underplayed in this matchup. I thouight the kid was awesome in big situations all year.

That said, the experts are not agreeing.

Oklahoma has a smart passing game. They can go deep, but Bradford seems to spread if around and just hit open guys, no matter if it is for 5 yards or 30.

Okla, defense also has been pretty impressive.

The power running of Tebow has been great as well. Seems like anytime they need it, he took the ball and got the yards needed.

Still wondering what is happneing that went from 3 to 5.5. in a day or 2???

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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:15 pm 
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This is a great matchup, and really looking forward to this game. Here's my analysis:

Florida was 12-1 SU, and 10-2 ATS, #3 in points scored (38.8 per game, 420 yards on the road), and #17 in total offense, against some of the top defensive teams in the country. Florida rushed for over 240 yards a game this season on the road and this is the premier rushing attack in football with Tebow, Demps and Rainey. Tebow completed 62.1% on the road, and Percy Harvin appears to be 100% for this game. Plus, they are going against a defense in Oklahoma's that is ranked #64 in the country. No doubts, Florida will score points tonight, but Oklahoma is better than the ranking shows. This season, they played 5 offenses that were ranked higher than Florida's offensive rank - here's the ranking of the offenses that Oklahoma has played: #24, Baylor #46, Texas #9, Kansas #21, Kansas St. #34, Nebraska #13, Texas Tech #4, Oklahoma St #6, and Missouri #8....In 3 of those 5 games, Oklahoma held their opponent to under 28 points, and Oklahoma was 7-2 ATS in these 9 games....

Florida has a good defense, but was it challenged this season? Who have they played? Take a look at these offensive rankings of their opponents: Hawaii #72, Miami #89, Tennessee #116, Mississippi #30, Arkansas #49, LSU #56, Kentucky #106, Georgia #22, Vanderbilt #116, South Carolina #116, Florida St #54, and Alabama #64.....They gave up 31 points in the loss to Mississippi St, and Alabama's medicore offense gave Florida's defense a challenge as well....

Here's a very interesting note I found - Every opponent Florida had before the SEC CHampionship had benched their starting QB at one time ...Hawaii , Miami , FSU , Vandy , LSU , Kentucky , South Carolina, and Tennesse.....Tonight they get Sam Bradford and Oklahoma. No QB controversy there.

My point is clear - Florida has not played a team that comes anywhere close to the caliber of this Oklahoma offense. Oklahoma is ranked #3 in offense, and #1 in points scored this season. They are without their starting RB Demarco Murray (900 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving and 18 TD's), but they are loaded at RB. In comes Chris Brown (and Mossis Madu) and his 1,000 rushing yards along with 17 TD's. Oklahoma has the best line in college football protecting their own Heisman QB, Bradford. Bradford is completing almost 70% of his passes, doesn't get sacked very often, and I'm very interested to see how Florida adjusts to seeing an offense of this caliber that likes to quickly tet up to the line. If Florida isn't ready defensively, they'd better be ready to score a lot of points - Oklahoma has averaged over 30 points in the first half of games over the last 3 games, and we know about their ability to put up 60+ points in a game.

Finally, a few more notes...Florida has been a highly penalized team this year - 9 per game on road games this season.....Oklahoma played the #8 toughest schedule and Florida #19....Oklahoma forced 22 fumbles this season, and, to finish the season, Florida did have some fumbles (although they recovered them for the most part) so might be something to watch for.

Oklahoma +6 (and hoping for more), OVER 69.5


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:16 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
The DeMarco Murray absence is being underplayed in this matchup. I thouight the kid was awesome in big situations all year.

That said, the experts are not agreeing.

Oklahoma has a smart passing game. They can go deep, but Bradford seems to spread if around and just hit open guys, no matter if it is for 5 yards or 30.

Okla, defense also has been pretty impressive.

The power running of Tebow has been great as well. Seems like anytime they need it, he took the ball and got the yards needed.

Still wondering what is happneing that went from 3 to 5.5. in a day or 2???


Losing Murray won't help, but Oklahoma has two more very good options with Brown and Moses.

Good point on Bradford - he will spread it around.


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:22 pm 
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back down to 5.5...hopefully 5 at post time

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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 6:16 pm 
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Now at 5. I guess 6 really sent some people scrambling for the Sooners.


I am going to go with my original feeling on this

Florida +5 against Oklahoma in Miami

There is no doubt in my mind that Florida is playing this game in the 30s. Oklahoma D averages about 25 ppg and Florida will be one equal to the top offenses Oklahoma played.

The real question is how is OU going to match up with UF d. I think they will score some points. This won't be a shutout type of situation. I do think that Florida keeps them in the 20s.

35-24

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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:26 pm 
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Sorry I'm late. Not that you should care what I think. College isn't my game. It was a last second play.

Oklahoma +5.5

Over 70


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:00 pm 
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Oklahoma blew two opportunites at 2 TD's in the 1st half, and Florida survives a bad 1st half by Tebow. It could have easily been 21-7 Oklahoma at the half, but instead, we have a low scoring battle.

I thought the game would go over the total, but now there's no chance of tha happening, but certainly didn't expect the low scoring 1st half that we just got.


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:11 pm 
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BD wrote:
Oklahoma blew two opportunites at 2 TD's in the 1st half, and Florida survives a bad 1st half by Tebow. It could have easily been 21-7 Oklahoma at the half, but instead, we have a low scoring battle.

I thought the game would go over the total, but now there's no chance of tha happening, but certainly didn't expect the low scoring 1st half that we just got.


I was thinking 10 Td's in the game to get to the over. They only have 8 more to go. Still feel this could get outta hand if the secondaries get gassed. Wouldn't expect the QB's arms to get tired first.

Would still feel the same if the over was still only 6 Td's away. The second half total is 33 1/2 on thegreek.com and 32 1/2 on pinnaclesports.com. I'd take the over on that too.

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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:19 pm 
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donspiracy wrote:
BD wrote:
Oklahoma blew two opportunites at 2 TD's in the 1st half, and Florida survives a bad 1st half by Tebow. It could have easily been 21-7 Oklahoma at the half, but instead, we have a low scoring battle.

I thought the game would go over the total, but now there's no chance of tha happening, but certainly didn't expect the low scoring 1st half that we just got.


I was thinking 10 Td's in the game to get to the over. They only have 8 more to go. Still feel this could get outta hand if the secondaries get gassed. Wouldn't expect the QB's arms to get tired first.

Would still feel the same if the over was still only 6 Td's away. The second half total is 33 1/2 on thegreek.com and 32 1/2 on pinnaclesports.com. I'd take the over on that too.


I thought about a 2nd half play, but decided against it. So far, Florida 3 and out, and now Oklahoma is pinned in their own territory...

I'd love to see a miracle, just think that these offenses have too much too overcome now..


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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Jan 09, 2009 12:28 am 
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Oklahoma had this game. They outplayed Florida for most of the game, but when you cant get shut down twice on the goal line and expect to win the title! Didnt deserve the W for that simple reason

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 Post subject: Re: BCS Game thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:48 am 
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...and if Iglesias wins that battle for the catch at they were at the 20 and ready to score again.

Still Oklahoma was not in charge of the game. Give the Sooners 3 points each time for being inside the 10 and they still lose the game.

This was a hard fought evenly matched game. Both teams would lose to USC.

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