This is a great matchup, and really looking forward to this game. Here's my analysis:
Florida was 12-1 SU, and 10-2 ATS, #3 in points scored (38.8 per game, 420 yards on the road), and #17 in total offense, against some of the top defensive teams in the country. Florida rushed for over 240 yards a game this season on the road and this is the premier rushing attack in football with Tebow, Demps and Rainey. Tebow completed 62.1% on the road, and Percy Harvin appears to be 100% for this game. Plus, they are going against a defense in Oklahoma's that is ranked #64 in the country. No doubts, Florida will score points tonight, but Oklahoma is better than the ranking shows. This season, they played 5 offenses that were ranked higher than Florida's offensive rank - here's the ranking of the offenses that Oklahoma has played: #24, Baylor #46, Texas #9, Kansas #21, Kansas St. #34, Nebraska #13, Texas Tech #4, Oklahoma St #6, and Missouri #8....In 3 of those 5 games, Oklahoma held their opponent to under 28 points, and Oklahoma was 7-2 ATS in these 9 games....
Florida has a good defense, but was it challenged this season? Who have they played? Take a look at these offensive rankings of their opponents: Hawaii #72, Miami #89, Tennessee #116, Mississippi #30, Arkansas #49, LSU #56, Kentucky #106, Georgia #22, Vanderbilt #116, South Carolina #116, Florida St #54, and Alabama #64.....They gave up 31 points in the loss to Mississippi St, and Alabama's medicore offense gave Florida's defense a challenge as well....
Here's a very interesting note I found - Every opponent Florida had before the SEC CHampionship had benched their starting QB at one time ...Hawaii , Miami , FSU , Vandy , LSU , Kentucky , South Carolina, and Tennesse.....Tonight they get Sam Bradford and Oklahoma. No QB controversy there.
My point is clear - Florida has not played a team that comes anywhere close to the caliber of this Oklahoma offense. Oklahoma is ranked #3 in offense, and #1 in points scored this season. They are without their starting RB Demarco Murray (900 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving and 18 TD's), but they are loaded at RB. In comes Chris Brown (and Mossis Madu) and his 1,000 rushing yards along with 17 TD's. Oklahoma has the best line in college football protecting their own Heisman QB, Bradford. Bradford is completing almost 70% of his passes, doesn't get sacked very often, and I'm very interested to see how Florida adjusts to seeing an offense of this caliber that likes to quickly tet up to the line. If Florida isn't ready defensively, they'd better be ready to score a lot of points - Oklahoma has averaged over 30 points in the first half of games over the last 3 games, and we know about their ability to put up 60+ points in a game.
Finally, a few more notes...Florida has been a highly penalized team this year - 9 per game on road games this season.....Oklahoma played the #8 toughest schedule and Florida #19....Oklahoma forced 22 fumbles this season, and, to finish the season, Florida did have some fumbles (although they recovered them for the most part) so might be something to watch for.
Oklahoma +6 (and hoping for more), OVER 69.5
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