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Brief overviews:
1. Notre Dame – The diamond of the group. Obvious positives to landing them. They are the crown jewel of the Independents, a natural fit in the Big Ten geographically, and could be forced out of the Big East in other sports so that the Big East can avoid being torn apart and disappear. Ultimately, the Big East could strike a deal with the Big Ten in which the Big East would tell Notre Dame they are being ejected from all other sports unless they join the Big East in football. The Big Ten would rather join the Big Ten if forced to join a Conference, so they would join the Big Ten, at which point the Big Ten would pass on Rutgers or not take a 2nd Big East school like Pitt. If the Big Ten takes Rutgers and potentially Pitt, the ACC and SEC could raid the Conference for a few other schools to be competitive, which would end the Big East Conference as we know it. Notre Dame brings boatloads of money, a huge nationwide fan base, and enormous rivalry power across the Midwest.
2. Nebraska – The Cornhuskers just recently popped onto the radar and I like it. I’ve always liked this program. The Huskers have an unrivaled tradition, are a rebounding program, are academically on par with other Big Ten schools, and draw a fan based that opens the Big Ten and its network to a market that stretches across 8 states including Texas and Colorado. Plus, Nebraska is on the verge of returning to their perennial powerhouse roots which means a likely consistent top 25 ranked addition to the Conference.
3. Rutgers – You could argue that they belong at #2 in this discussion. Rutgers draw is simple. Academically, they would be up there with Northwestern as one of the top schools in the entire Conference. But more importantly, they are a natural rival to Penn State like OSU is to Michigan (geographically speaking), they blow open the entire New York market to the Big Ten Network, which would reach an additional 20 million people easily over the four state area, and they are a fringe top 25 team every year unlikely to be a doormat like Indiana. The draw for a school like Rutgers is $22-25 million a year in revenue they are not getting in the Big East.
4. Missouri – The wild card. Some say they are the most likely to jump as they seem so raring to go, it’s ridiculous. Because of the lack of revenue sharing in the Big 12, Missouri takes home about $7 million a year in TV Revenue. A jump to the Big Ten would triple and possibly even quadruple that when all is said and done. It’s a massive annual windfall to the program, that could yield an additional $100 million in the first 5 years. There is also the natural rivalry with schools like Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, and possibly even Minnesota, and now real loyalty to the Big 12.
What are the odds here?
1. Notre Dame – The Big East hasn’t put an ultimatum on Notre Dame yet, which is why I’m surprised they made formal offers already. At this point, I would say ND is a 15-20% shot at making the jump. Mark them as a “NO” right now since the fan base seems opposed. Only the reality of the situation could change this if the Big East doesn’t force it, but it would be unpopular with the fans.
2. Nebraska – God, I would love to see this. Nebraska has been pretty tightlipped about this so far. There is clearly another sizeable financial incentive for them, in the tune of double what they are making right now, or roughly an additional $10-12 million a year in revenue ($50-60 million over the next 5 years). Plus, they put themselves on National TV on a regular basis with the Big Ten and the Big Ten Network. They don’t really have storied Nationally talked about rivalries with Texas and Oklahoma, so jumping ship would not hurt them, but their fan base is loyal so any move like this could be met with some serious criticism. I put their shot at 35-40%, so we can mark them as “UNLIKELY” right now.
3. Rutgers – Not sure what would hold Rutgers back. About five times the money, a more prestigious academic
environment, a huge Midwestern audience, and escape from a Conference that could ultimately be a school or two away from its demise. I think this should be marked as “PROBABLE” and I’ll put this at 60-65% chance.
4. Missouri – We’ve already discussed why they would do this and why they are likely chomping at the bit. The Big 12 is working on contingencies, almost anticipating a jump by Missouri. I’d say they are 80% and we’ll mark them down as “LIKELY”.
If this holds true and Rutgers and Missouri agree to come aboard, that will leave the Big 12 and Big East with sizeable, but patchable holes. I’m thinking the Big Ten would then seek another school, possibly a Pitt or Notre Dame to fill that final slot and create balance. It is at this point that the Big East could force Notre Dame’s hand by threatening to throw them out if they don’t join the Conference. They know ND will never join in football, so by threatening them, it could force ND to jump to the Big Ten, which would allow the Big East to retain Pitt and remain a viable Conference.
This could get real interesting.
Final note:
A realigned Big Ten with additions of Rutgers, Notre Dame, and Missouri could be divided North/South or East/West. Because the Conference map would be spread wide from East to West, that seems to work better than North to South. Otherwise you would have a North Division with Rutgers on the far east and Minnesota and Wisconsin on the far West. Not really a rivalry. The geographical possibilities, assuming the Conference doesn’t force someone into another division to even things out, would most likely look like this:
East
Rutgers
Penn State
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Notre Dame
Indiana
West
Purdue
Northwestern
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
The biggest problem here is having a division that loads Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame into a single Division. That can be rectified if we use the State of Indiana, with 3 schools, as the slight offsetting balancer of the divisions. We can swap Purdue with Notre Dame to balance out the power levels.
That would give divisions that look like this (in order of projected 2010 record):
East
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan
Michigan State
Rutgers
Purdue
Indiana
West
Wisconsin
Iowa
Notre Dame
Missouri
Minnesota
Illinois
Northwestern
Interesting…
This is going to unfold in the next 3-6 months as the Big Ten would like to begin their expanded schedule for the 2012 season, from what I am hearing.
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