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How many of you feel that it is impossible for the Bears to finish with a better record than Minnesota....It's not as if Minnesota isn't without it's weaknesses/concerns. AP can't hang onto the football, the depth on the Vikings has been severely compromised, their OL is looking vulnerable, and their secondary is aging fast
I know what people will say on paper, but there's a reason that there are about 50-60% different playoff teams every year from the year before. Here are the playoff teams every year since 2000 and the percent turnover the following season:
2000: Saints, Rams, Ravens, Colts, Eagles, Bucs, Giants, Vikings, Raiders, Titans, Broncos, Dolphins
% Change: Baseline
2001: Jets, Raiders, 49ers, Rams, Eagles, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Dolphins, Bucs, Bears
% Change: 50%
2002: Giants, Browns, Steelers, Raiders, Titans, Bucs, Jets, Eagles, 49ers, Falcons, Packers, Colts
% Change: 42%
2003: Colts, Panthers, Packers, Chiefs, Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Seahawks, Eagles, Ravens, Cowboys, Rams
% Change: 66%
2004: Patriots, Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Rams, Eagles, Vikings, Seahawks, Jets, Falcons, Steelers, Packers
% Change: 42%
2005: Steelers, Colts, Seahawks, Panthers, Broncos, Redskins, Jaguars, Bengals, Bucs, Bears, Giants
% Change: 58%
2006: Cowboys, Saints, Giants, Eagles, Jets, Patriots, Bears, Colts, Seahawks, Chargers, Ravens, Chiefs
% Change: 66%
2007: Packers, Colts, Patriots, Giants, Chargers, Steelers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Redskins, Cowboys, Bucs, Titans
% Change: 50%
2008: Cardinals, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Eagles, Falcons, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, Vikings, Giants, Panthers
% Change: 58%
2009: Cardinals, Packers, Saints, Colts, Vikings, Jets, Cowboys, Chargers, Eagles, Bengals, Patriots, Ravens
% Change: 50%
So, since 2000, the percentage of teams that has been different than the preceding year has been:
50%, 42%, 66%, 42%, 58%, 66%, 50%, 58%, and 50%.
The average number of teams that are different than the previous year are:
54% or pretty much half. In every year, at a minimum, at least 5 teams were different. In some years, as many as 8 teams.
So, looking at 2009's results, let's start by stack ranking these teams based on rough 2010 finish (doesn't have to be exact):
1. Colts
2. Saints
3. Ravens
4. Jets
5. Patriots
6. Packers
7. Chargers
8. Vikings
9. Cowboys
10. Bengals
11. Eagles
12. Cardinals
That's a rough estimate.
Now, based on that, if half of the teams won't be returning for the playoffs, let's determine which 6 teams those are. It's not as simple as taking the bottom six because of the need for Division winners, etc. One at a time.
1. Colts - Possibly the best team in football right now with the Saints. Even if they take a dip, it is nearly impossible they fall out of the playoff picture if Manning is healthy. Especially in their division where they will be favored to win the Division again.
2. Saints - See the Colts. Nearly the same response.
3. Ravens - Vastly improved team with the addition of Anquan Boldin and a developing young QB with weapons. This high? Who knows, but they appear to be a playoff caliber definite and the frontrunner to win a battered division since Pittsburgh's offseason of Hell.
4. Jets - Eeked into the playoffs last year and just loaded their roster up with veteran leadership, quality rookies, some talented but undisciplined players, and put it all in the hands of a Coach known for ironing out the discipline wrinkles to make guys better. I think they are the East frontrunner and a Super Bowl contender unless Sanchez has major Sophomore Slump issues.
5. Patriots - These guys will battle the Jets all season, but as long as they have Brady/Moss/Welker/great OL, it is highly unlikely they miss the playoffs.
6. Packers - Built around Aaron Rodgers and a vastly improved Defense, even with Favre's return, they'll be my favorite to win the Division more than likely.
7. Chargers - Now we get into the have nots. The Chargers seem like they have to win the AFC West because only Denver could even contend and they don't seem to have the horses for it this year. So if they make it, who gets bumped from above? Somebody has to win the NFC North, and it probably isn't the Bears or Lions, so even if you swap Minnesota for Green Bay, one is a lock to return. Perhaps there is a freak injury and one of the locks loses a Franchise QB and doesn't make it. No idea. So pull the team you think is most likely out from the equation.
8. Vikings - Whether you have Minnesota or Green Bay, there likely isn't room for both unless you think the Jets are out and haven't removed them already. One of these teams seems unlikely to return from the North based on statistical probabilities that have held true for the past decade.
9. Cowboys - If there's a division that's poised for a new horse to emerge, it's the East. Dallas didn't really improve much unless you consider a very talented primadonna rookie WR improvement, while the Giants are ready to get back into the playoffs and Washington added McNabb. The Eagles are no push over either, so that Division is wide open.
10. Bengals - The Bengals just can't fit into this picture right now. They are not more likely to make it back than the teams above them and their Division probably puts them in a battle for 2nd place with Pittsburgh for a Wild Card in a tough AFC.
11. Eagles - Out. Division is too tough and it will likely take more than one season to replace McNabb.
12. Cardinals - Too much turnover at key positions and key player losses. They're going back to sub .500 this year.
That means that Arizona, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Dallas, and one of the NFC North teams are my lock. For me, the lesser of the two is Minnesota. I need to come up with one more team unlikely to make the playoffs, so I have to go out on a limb. I'll say the Jets and that Sanchez has a Sophomore Slump, but that's a tough one.
That means the playoff picture is now:
AFC East - Patriots
AFC North - Ravens
AFC South - Colts
AFC West - Chargers
NFC East - Unknown
NFC North - Packers
NFC South - Saints
NFC West - Unknown
We need to pick two Division winners still to fill holes. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Washington wins the NFC East with a 10-6 record, mostly accomplished from going 4-2 in the Division. I think the McNabb pickup was the most impactful of the offseason. He's still a Franchise QB if he's healthy and they have a tendency to turn around Franchises. 9-7 might be enough to win in the East this year. And I'll also say that in the NFC West, the 49ers ground game and Defense win them a very weak Division with a similar record.
Now we're looking at:
AFC East - Patriots
AFC North - Ravens
AFC South - Colts
AFC West - Chargers
NFC East - Redskins
NFC North - Packers
NFC South - Saints
NFC West - 49ers
We need four Wild Cards and that group CANNOT include teams we're already bumped from the playoffs. In the NFC of potentials includes:
Giants (not Dallas since they were one of the won't returns)
Bears (not Minnesota since they were also one of the won't returns)
Panthers
Falcons
In the AFC, our wild card favorites are:
Texans
Dolphins (not the Jets since they are one of the won't returns)
Broncos
Steelers
In the AFC, I'm going with the Texans and the Dolphins. Both either seemed ready to breakout or made some key additions this offseason that could help them turn a corner.
In the NFC, here's the situation:
We had to remove Dallas and Minnesota because we could only return 6 playoff teams and they just didn't fit, so they won't be Wild Cards. The Giants added Pro Bowl S Antrel Rolle, which was a nice move this offseason. They will also likely get Pierre-Paul on the field early, but he could also be more of a physical freak project than most 1st Round picks. The Bears had one of the most impactful offseasons of any NFL club, basically rebuilding their Defense with the addition of Peppers and Harris in the Secondary from Carolina, Major Wright a likely rookie FS, and their starting LB group intact. They also brought in an explosive Offensive Coordinator and added some depth on Offense at RB and TE with solid players who fit the system. Their season will hinge on Cutler's ability to grasp Martz's Offense in a reasonable time frame. The Panthers have a solid Defense and running game, but major losses on Defense with an unproven QB could be their downfall this season. And the Falcons could be ready to take the next step.
It is coming down to the Giants, Falcons, and Bears for me at this point. Of course I'm a Bears fan, so I'm fitting them in there, so I'll leave the Giants out because of the way they disappeared at the end of last year down the stretch. The Falcons could re-emerge this season.
My preliminary playoffs based on the Rule of Halfs (eliminating half of last year's playoff teams and finding new ones) looks like this:
AFC
Byes:
Colts and Ravens
1st Round Matchups:
Dolphins at Patriots
Texans at Chargers
NFC
Byes:
Saints and Packers
1st Round Matchups:
Bears at Redskins
Falcons at 49ers
AFC Winner: Ravens (gut says Colts, but it does every year)
NFC Winner: Packers (since 2000, only 1 team out of the 20 that have played for the Super Bowl returned the following season to play in it again)
SB Winner: Ravens
This will probably change a dozen times, but that's the fun of it.
That is my logic for putting the Bears in the playoffs this year. While they may not be better than the Packers and Vikings on paper, statistically, half the teams that make the playoffs don't make it again the following year. That likely dumps the Vikings or the Packers off that list in 2010. I'm going with Minnesota and that opens the door for Chicago if Cutler can pick up this Offense and our Defense can stay fairly healthy.
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