Miami -3 @ Detroit
I’m backing Miami again for the fourth straight week (3-0 ATS last three following their bye). The Dolphins are doing it with defense, primarily, and I expect the Fins defense to have a strong day against Detroit. The Mike Martz-led Lions offense relies so much on the passing game involving their running back. Kevin Jones has 50 receptions on the year to go along with his 636 yards rushing. But this week, the Lions have no Jones as he is doubtful with an ankle injury. Both of Jones’ backups, Calhoun and Bryson, are also out. That leaves the running back chores to Aveion Cason and Arlen Harris. Who? Both are guys the Lions cut before the season and then had to bring back out of necessity. Rarely does an injury at one position mean so much as this one means to Detroit. After Jones went out last week, the Lions offense became very predictable and one-dimensional. The Cardinals double-teamed Roy Williams and took their chances with the other Lions’ skill players...such as they are. I expect the Lions to struggle all day to move the ball against the Fins’ fifth ranked defense. The Dolphins have struggled with their running game this year, but I expect them to have success here against the Lions’ bottom five run defense that seems to have dropped a few notches without their big run stuffer Sean Rogers in the middle. They allowed 160 yards rushing last week to the Cardinals, the biggest rushing output of the year for Arizona. Miami has really struggled to run the ball and in fact had negative rushing yards last week. I expect them to have much more success here against Detroit’s forgiving defense. However, Miami has been getting decent performances in recent weeks from QB Joey Harrington. (26-42 for 254 yards last week against Minny. In a low-scoring game, I’ll lay the points on the road with the much better defense against an offense that I expect won't even get to double digits in points.
New England -3 vs. Chicago
I think this is a great situation to go against the Bears. The Bears are making their third straight road trip and the Patriots are home trying to shake off a two game home losing streak. Fundamentally, this is also a bad matchup for the Bears. The most glaring mismatch is the Bears passing game against the NE defense. Grossman has shown he can be erratic when under pressure and his performance has been fair to dismal against teams that have had a successful pass rush (Minnesota, Arizona, Miami). New England can be one of the most dangerous defenses for an inexperienced QB to face because they show multiple looks, disguise coverages and bring pressure from a variety of angles. Grossman has shown he’s not yet ready to succeed against such pressure. This isn’t necessarily a slap at Grossman. He has started less than 25 games in his NFL career and is still in the early stages of his development as an NFL QB. However, there is a pattern of very inconsistent throwing, bad decisions and turnovers against quality defenses that I expect to be repeated this week. If Grossman struggles – and I expect he will – the Bears must be able to run the ball effectively. I don’t expect the Bears to have much success there either against one of the top three run defenses in the league. Conversely, I expect the Pats’ offense and Tom Brady to have a big day against a Bears defense that has been beaten in the past by quick passing games. Brady is by far the best QB the Bears will see this year and he seems to be in a groove right now, having a great game last week vs. Green Bay. In addition, the Bears' defense has been gashed by the run in recent weeks, and the two-headed backfield of Dillon and Maroney should be able to repeat the rushing success of recent weeks vs. the Bears. Chicago has had a great season so far, going 9-1, but they have played only TWO teams with a winning record all season. And they were fortunate to play those two teams when those teams were dealing with key injuries. Their misleading 9-1 record gives us line value here. No team has yet been able to expose the Bears on both sides of the ball like New England can. The strong matchup advantages for NE, combined with the situation, lead me to call for a one-sided near blowout here. New England 27, Bears 10.
Last edited by Coast2Coast on Thu Nov 23, 2006 9:49 am, edited 4 times in total.
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