This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a meat/steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick.

The winner will be the guy with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded. You must have at least 50 picks by season's end to win the prize. Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com.

Overall, the board had its worst week of the year, going 50-63-6 (44%) last week. The board has now dropped below 50% for the first time all year, standing at 428-435 (49.6%).

................................Last Week......................Season........................... %
Nas..............................1-0.............................1-0..............................100
Not in the Biz................0-0.............................8-3...............................73
Hawkeye Vince..............4-1............................30-23.............................57
Bud Dude.....................5-3-2.........................40-31-4..........................56
Coast...........................2-4-1.........................60-54-5..........................54
Doug............................2-3.............................8-7-2.............................53
the gooch.................... 3-1 ...........................19-17.............................53
Chus............................8-10-1.......................54-53-4..........................50
donspiracy....................4-6............................51-49-2..........................50
Matt Murton’s Beard......1-1............................18-18-1..........................50
Mr. Belvidere..................0-0............................5-5................................50
sabu.............................3-4............................18-19-1..........................49
Rocks and Blows........ ..1-4.............................20-22-2.........................48
Good dolphin.............. . 7-6............................23-26............................47
Mitch Cumstein...............5-3...........................18-24............................43
Woodridge Ryan......... ...2-2............................3-4...............................43
reents..........................3-14-2........................50-73-4.........................41
BD.................................0-1............................3-7...............................30

Coast - I was 4-1 last week. Had Oregon State and the under in that game - you might have missed it on the same line.

Winners:

Minny -3, Oregon State - 14.5 and Under 42, Nevada - 14.5

Losers:
Uconn +1

got it Vince. Thanks. Did I screw up anybody else's? As many balls as I'm juggling these days, I gotta believe my error factor was higher than 1 mistake this week

Just be careful when you juggle your own Coast

Carolina -4
They are getting on their usual second half roll. The Deadskins have nothing with Portis out and Moss banged up. Carolina rolls.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Hawaii -17
Hawaii is averaging 49.2 ppg and is 8-1-1 ATS. They have been throwing the ball all over the field against everyone, I see nothing changing here. Purdue is 8-4, but they did not play UM or OSU, and only scored 3 against the Badgers.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

YOu pros got any cant misses for Turkey day?

Tampa at Dallas -11 1/2

Miami at Detroit +2 1/2

Denver at KC -1 1/2

Miami -3 @ Detroit
I’m backing Miami again for the fourth straight week (3-0 ATS last three following their bye). The Dolphins are doing it with defense, primarily, and I expect the Fins defense to have a strong day against Detroit. The Mike Martz-led Lions offense relies so much on the passing game involving their running back. Kevin Jones has 50 receptions on the year to go along with his 636 yards rushing. But this week, the Lions have no Jones as he is doubtful with an ankle injury. Both of Jones’ backups, Calhoun and Bryson, are also out. That leaves the running back chores to Aveion Cason and Arlen Harris. Who? Both are guys the Lions cut before the season and then had to bring back out of necessity. Rarely does an injury at one position mean so much as this one means to Detroit. After Jones went out last week, the Lions offense became very predictable and one-dimensional. The Cardinals double-teamed Roy Williams and took their chances with the other Lions’ skill players...such as they are. I expect the Lions to struggle all day to move the ball against the Fins’ fifth ranked defense. The Dolphins have struggled with their running game this year, but I expect them to have success here against the Lions’ bottom five run defense that seems to have dropped a few notches without their big run stuffer Sean Rogers in the middle. They allowed 160 yards rushing last week to the Cardinals, the biggest rushing output of the year for Arizona. Miami has really struggled to run the ball and in fact had negative rushing yards last week. I expect them to have much more success here against Detroit’s forgiving defense. However, Miami has been getting decent performances in recent weeks from QB Joey Harrington. (26-42 for 254 yards last week against Minny. In a low-scoring game, I’ll lay the points on the road with the much better defense against an offense that I expect won't even get to double digits in points.

New England -3 vs. Chicago
I think this is a great situation to go against the Bears. The Bears are making their third straight road trip and the Patriots are home trying to shake off a two game home losing streak. Fundamentally, this is also a bad matchup for the Bears. The most glaring mismatch is the Bears passing game against the NE defense. Grossman has shown he can be erratic when under pressure and his performance has been fair to dismal against teams that have had a successful pass rush (Minnesota, Arizona, Miami). New England can be one of the most dangerous defenses for an inexperienced QB to face because they show multiple looks, disguise coverages and bring pressure from a variety of angles. Grossman has shown he’s not yet ready to succeed against such pressure. This isn’t necessarily a slap at Grossman. He has started less than 25 games in his NFL career and is still in the early stages of his development as an NFL QB. However, there is a pattern of very inconsistent throwing, bad decisions and turnovers against quality defenses that I expect to be repeated this week. If Grossman struggles – and I expect he will – the Bears must be able to run the ball effectively. I don’t expect the Bears to have much success there either against one of the top three run defenses in the league. Conversely, I expect the Pats’ offense and Tom Brady to have a big day against a Bears defense that has been beaten in the past by quick passing games. Brady is by far the best QB the Bears will see this year and he seems to be in a groove right now, having a great game last week vs. Green Bay. In addition, the Bears' defense has been gashed by the run in recent weeks, and the two-headed backfield of Dillon and Maroney should be able to repeat the rushing success of recent weeks vs. the Bears. Chicago has had a great season so far, going 9-1, but they have played only TWO teams with a winning record all season. And they were fortunate to play those two teams when those teams were dealing with key injuries. Their misleading 9-1 record gives us line value here. No team has yet been able to expose the Bears on both sides of the ball like New England can. The strong matchup advantages for NE, combined with the situation, lead me to call for a one-sided near blowout here. New England 27, Bears 10.

A mixture of College and NFL Games.

Miami +4 vs Boston College- I gotta think Miami will want to win this game for a bowl game and maybe play for the coach, but a loss here and this season is will be the worst Hurricane season ever.

Dolphins -3 vs Lions- I know the Lions play tough on Thanksgiving, but with Jones getting injured and I thought the Lions were on a roll, but lost to the 49ers at home and Harrington struggles on Thanksgiving gets his revenge tommorow.

Cowboys -11 vs Buccanneers- Tony Romo keeps his top perfromance going and look for T.O. to have a big day on his first Thanksgiving game, it may take until the second half for the Cowboys to rule, so the turkey could taste a little bad to mid third quarter.

Broncos +1 vs Chiefs- There is a report that this could be Plummer's last start, so look for him to do everything he can to win this game and the defense will want to respond after last week's blowing a 24-7 lead.

Miami -3
New England -3
Oakland +13

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

BC -4 at Miami

If you looked at the numbers behind these teams irrespective of the names of the schools BC would be close to a 10 point favorite in this one. Reports have half the players at the U ready to pack it in for the year. I don't think there will be a valiant drive for a low end bowl bid tonight. Take BC very hard in this one

Lions +3 at home against Fins
OVER 39

I know the Lions suck. However, it is Thanksgiving and you know what thhat means...a bad Lions team wins won for the home crowd. I probably would not recommending putting money on the Lions...however I would never recommend putting it on the Fish in this one. If the Lions are going to win they will need to score points. The Miami O puts a lot of stress on the D each week. I think the short week will end in fatigue for Miami wich will end in points for a capable Lion O.

KC -1 at home against Denver

I think the Chiefs are a team on the come. The running game is there and I think Trent Green will revitalize the passing game. I love Denver's D. It's offense is another problem. KC is a tough place to play and I think the Chief fans will be going wild after a day of feasting followed by a first ever Thanksgiving game. Arrowhead will be rocking. I like this for the Chiefs in essentially a pick em game.

LSU pick em over Arkansas

This is a cinderalla season for the hogs. However, I do not like their play at quarterback. LSU is a horrible opponent to play when you have offensive weaknesses. They beat on good offensive teams with their d. I think they will hold Arkansas under 14 points which should be enough for the straight up win.

Wake Forest +1.5 at Maryland

If you have been watching me this year you know I have been on top of some cinderellas all year. Wake is one of those teams. They have overcome a ton of adversity by playing good defense and running the ball. While I love Ralph Freidgen I think his team has become a little overrated. This is for a berth in the vaunted acc title game, so both teams will be geared up. I'll take the points.

Rutgers -14.5 at home versus Syracuse

You often see cinderella teams go into a huge tailspin after the clock stikes midnight. However, Rutgers was doing it's winning with two areas of football that stay consistent, defense and running. They had a blip against an emerging Cincy team whose strenghts happened to match up perfectly with Rutgers strenghts. It was just a bad matchup. Not today. Expect the Scarlet Knights to come out for blood in this one. Syracuse will be unable to stop the run and unable to more the ball on O. I like Rutgers by 3 TD's

Oklahoma -6 at Oklahoma State

I know...big rivalry game with a championship berth on the line and OK top player out with an injury. Still, I have like how ok has played since the Peterson injury. Both sides of the ball seem to have stepped up their play. 6 is a big number but I think this is a statement game for the sooners.

Florida -9.5 at FSU

Last week I advocated taking the home dogs in rivalrly games. That is usually the better approach. I am going against that today (so please do not bet money based on my thoughts). This is the year for teams to get healthy against UM/FSU. There is a lot of asskicking to be made up and FSU will play none better than Florida. The FSU faithfull who called for young Bowden's head will be wondering what they were thinking as they are overmatched by the superior Florida D. Florida is getting several key contributors back from injury on O. I expect Urban Meyer to use this opportunity to use this as a tuneup for of the SEC championship. Good players will be playing late...not that it will matter as FSU will have tremendous trouble trying to score.

Louisvill -12 at Pitt
OVER 58.5

Well, well, well our old friend Wanny is taking a talented team that had a good start and running it into the crapper...I am shocked. Anyone who watched the WVU-Pitt game last week understands why the Pitt D is ranked so low. They cannot stop the run to save their lives. I fully expect Louisville to put up 50 on the Panthers today, which makes the over a chip shot. I don't expect a good Pitt offense to score in the high 30's. Take the over hard in this one.

Georgia Tech +2 at Georgia

Finally I find a road dog in a rivalry game. Don't let the Bulldog success of last week fool you. This is not a particularly good team. Alternatively, I really like Tech. These games are always close so the points are a nice bonus to a game GT should win straight up.

USC/ND OVER 56.5

This is going to be a track meet tonight. I think ND has been living a charmed life this year as they could easily have 3 more losses. This time they are playing an USC team inspired by thoughts of a bcs championship berth. I am not overly impressed with the USC D either. Both sides have capable O's and overrated D. It will be close as I see this as 31-28.

Houston +6 at Jets

Jets play decent D against the pass. However, the Bears showed last week that there is no reason to pass when you can run with ease. The Texans have an emerging running game with Lundy and Gado. One of them will put up 100 on the porous Jet run D. The Jest offense is fairly pathetic. They have a three headed monster at running back with none of the three being particularly good. Coles and Cotchery are nice receivers but Pennington seems to have nothing on the ball these days. 6 is a big number for any team. For the Jets it is enourmous, especially against a texan team on the come.

Carolina -4 at Washington

The Skins have already waved the white flag this year and Carolina is making a run to the division championship. The skin D has been horrible, particularly against the pass. That's bad news with Steve Smith coming into town. Carolina will throw early and often leaving the skins to have to throw with a new QB. Oh yes, there will be sacks. This one is the lock of the day

Philly +9 at Indy

Everyone is predicting a Philly collapse post Donovan and Indy is the darlings of the NFL...so why is this number not bigger? I am doing this one based solely as contrary to public sentiment.

USC -7-1/2 vs. Notre Dame
The USC loss to Oregon State three weeks ago appears to have had some kind of positive effect on the USC defense. The Trojans D has stifled good offenses from Oregon and Cal in successive weeks. Cal managed just 275 yards of total offense – the worst performance of the year for the powerful Bears’ offense. Notre Dame isn’t anywhere near as balanced as Cal and Oregon. The Trojans won’t need to worry too much about the run. While ND back Walker has rushed for 1,000 yards and 4.9 ypc., those stats are very misleading because of the succession of mediocre to bad defenses the Irish have faced. But against Michigan (#6 in TD), Penn State (#15 in TD) and UCLA (#32 in TD), the only three top 60 defenses the Irish have seen all year, the Irish managed an average of just 55 ypg rushing. I expect similar stats against USC, the 21st ranked defense overall and 13th against the run. So if Notre Dame must be largely one-dimensional in its passing game, as I expect, USC will have a significant advantage While the USC offense has not been nearly as prolific as recent years, I expect a pretty good day against an average Notre Dame defense (44th ranked in total defense). And again, the ND stats are misleading because they have played so many bad teams. Navy is the only top 25 offense the ND defense has seen all year. And USC (#23 in total offense) is much more balanced than Navy or Air Force, two teams that had significant success running the ball agasint ND. As we have seen in many previous years, Notre Dame has built decent stats and its one-loss record against a bunch of bad teams. In its only previous game against a top 25 team (Michigan) with the kind of run/pass balance USC has, ND was blown out and gashed by the UM running and passing game. We saw a similar occurrence last year when ND was blasted by Ohio State in a bowl game. If we don’t learn from history, we’re destined to repeat it. USC 34, Notre Dame 17.

Tampa Bay +11, Romo finally falls into a sophmore slump. Rhonde with 2 picks. Dallas 21- Tampa 14

Miami -3 These guys are on a roll and arent dismissing any playoff elimination just yet. Look for Harrington to have a big day against his old team

not going to touch the KC game will be back sunday morning. happy turkey day everyone.

_________________
"Stay out of courtrooms-but if you must go in be Well Armed and Don't compromise. You are innocent, remember that. They are guilty" -- Dr. Gonzo

Miami-Detroit UNDER 40
In my writeup above, I made the case for why Detroit will struggle to score points in this game. On further review, the Miami offense probably won't score 24 points in this game, which is approximately the number I think will be required for this game to have a chance to go over. Miami 21-9.

Happy Thanksgiving

greek at 10:40

Detroit +3 over Miami

Miami has a nice run going but they are still 4-8. I will take Detroit at home with the short week. Lions have been a dog 3 times at home this year and have covered em all.

Over 39 Dal/TB

Dallas D played great last week and I think they have a little letdown today. Tampa D isnt great this year so I see Dallas in the 28-31 pt range. I think Tampa can get 2 TD's.

Over 38 Den/KC

Denver's D has been hit hard 3 of the last 4 weeks. After a downer from the KC O last week I think they come out big tonite. Denver should be able to do some things against this KC D also. Last 2 played here between these two.. 45-17 and 31-27.

NFL Week 12 Turkey Day Special

Miami -3 @ Detroit (40)

'Fins feeding off of each other. Lions break like the wind.
The game could be played twice and this total is hard to reach. Under.
Miami 27 Detroit 12

Tampa @ Dallas -11 (39)

Thank god America's Team is back. Haven't you heard?
'Bucs put up fight but the Kissing Bandit, err, Bigger Tuna is a mastermind once again. Over.
Tampa 21 Dallas 34

Denver @ Kansas City -1 (38)

2nd home game after scare from Oak. LJ and friends go crazy.
Jake Plummer will not flurish until he mixes in a razorblade once and again.(By crackie!) Under.
Denver 13 KC 24

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

The Denver v. Kansas City total is 38.

courtesy pinnaclesports.com

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

well there is movement on the greek


TB +11' @ Dallas- to quote marshall lucky in the film "used cars" THATS TOO FU!@#N HIGH. TB and the points, they arent that bad. And Dallas will go up 10 and run the clock out with Tuna ball



KC DEN Over 38- Denver has the D, but I think this one will come in. Snake is desperate to keep his job which means he will take many chances meaning (scoring or turnovers which will lead to scoring). Look for Larry Johnson to have a 100+ 2 TD outing here. Green also has one game under his belt, which helps


BC- Miami OVER 37' AND


BC -4 @ Miami- holy cow, Im taking a chalk play going to Miami, Miami is OVER. BC is hungry and looking to improve their bowl position. Give the points, play the over for a Cane team that has quit on Coker. Xmas dreams of fully automatic tech 9's, and cash money prevent the Canes from concentrating and lead to a 5th loss in a row.

Tampa +11.5
TB @ Dallas over 38.5
KC -1
Denver @ KC over 38.5

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

LSU -2 vs Arkansas- LSU has been playing under the radar this year after losing to FLorida and Auburn, but come out on top by stopping Arkansas; run and them being able to run the ball.

Oregon +3 vs Oregon State- I know Oregon State has been playing well all season, but this is a rivarly game and for the Ducks to win, the Ducks will pound the Beavers.

Kansas +7 @ Missouri
I think Kansas is the better team right now and has a great chance to win this outright. The Jayhawks are just 6-5 on the season, but have been in every game they’ve played. Only Oklahoma State (10 pt. loss) has beaten KU by a larger margin than this spread. Against a very comparable schedule, KU has run the ball better than Missouri (4.8 ypc and 180 ypg vs. 4.1, 146)and defended the run better (3.5, 106 vs. 3.7, 136). And those stats are somewhat misleading because Missouri’s performance has really tailed off the last month. In the last five games, the Tigers have given up 210 ypg on the ground, while rushing for only 106 themselves. These teams also appear to be going in opposite directions as the season ends. MU is on a three game losing streak, has lost four of their last five, and the euphoria of their 6-0 start has vanished. KU has won three straight, four of the last five, and comes in with the confidence borne of winning (and covering) each of the last three years in this rivalry.

line from the greek 10:55am friday

Oregon St -3 over Oregon

Oregon St won their last 2 homes game over USC and Arizona St and have won 5 of 6 overall. Oregon has had a couple clunkers their last 2 against USC and Arizona as they were outscored 72-20. Oregon has also lost their last 3 road trips SU and ATS. Oregon St 8-1 ATS at home in this series. Oregon St has the "revenge" factor in this one also.

Wake Forest +2 vs Maryland- The winner of this game goes to the ACC Championship and with both teams coming off a loss, I like Wake to respond more with the season they've had so far.

Florida State +9 vs Florida- I know Florida State has had a down season, but this is a rivarly game and Florida State wants to play better at home after 4 or 5 losses there and the Bowden's need a big showing.

Georgia -3 vs Georgia Tech- Just when it looked like Georgia was going to lay down for the season, they showed up and beat Aurburn and after a week off to heal, they bounce back with another strong performance against Tech.

Notre Dame +9 vs USC- I think Weiss will have some plays up his sleeve, because after last season they know they had USC beaten and wants to prove that Notre Dame deserves a shot in the national championship game.

the greek at 10:30 this morning

Florida -8.5 over Flor St

Florida St has just been bad this year. Even with this being their last home game I cant see them doing much on O against Florida. Florida still with a chance at the national title and they have a huge edge at QB. Florida has won the last 2 in this series last year at home 34-7 and two years ago 20-13 here. Interesting ATS number in this one, SU winner is 16-0 ATS. I see Flor 27-10

BYU -10.5 over Utah

BYU had been a money machine until their ATS lost last week against NM. They get back in the money column today in Utah. Utah lost to a smiliar Bosie team here earlier this year 36-3. BYU O hasnt been stopped this year and I cant see this Utah D doing it today.

Vir Tech -15.5 over Virginia

VirTech at home this year gave up 38 to GT but the next highest points allowed by them at home in their other 6 home games was 13. Im not expecting a whole lot out of the Virginia O today, they were shut out by FSU in their last road game. VT by 21+ today in their home finale. Series host 5-1 ATS

Memphis +13
Louisville -10
ND/USC over 57
Georgia Tech +3
Wake Forest +1
Oklahoma -5

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Arizona State +3
Marshall +6.5

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Baltimore -3
Pitt has been bad on the road this year, especially Roethlisberger. The Ravens have turned things around since the removal of Fassil as offensive coordinator. Ravens by 7.

Philadelphia +9
The public always loves the Colts so there is value in going against them. Indy's D is bad and I don't see any way they blow out the Eagles. Garcia is no McNabb, but he once was a pro bowl QB.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

shit, I shoulda played that USC game....I think I'm 2-13 the last 3..

CAROLINA -4

Carolina is looking very good, ecspecially the D and they are on their second half roll. Skins are last in takeaways and Campbell in only his 2nd start has a long day ahead of him.

OAKLAND +13

Oakland has been playing better and Chargers are coming off two huge come from behind wins. I think this could be like the Browns in SD a few weeks ago and Oaklnad keeps it close but they lose. Oakland 5-1 ATS last 6 and I think big road dogs have been doing well.






[/b] TENNESSEE +3

G-Men have lost 2 in a row and looked like shit in 3 straight, Titans have been playing well and despite an awful D I expect them to rush manning and on offense run the ball very well and pull an upset.

See if the wins keep coming.

Bills +3 vs Jaguars- I can never tell what the Jaguars are going to do and I like the way the Bills have been playing lately and should take this game to the end.

49ers +4.5 vs Rams- The Rams look like their ready to thrown in the towel and the 49ers are starting to play like a team that will make the jump next year, but keep showing singns this year and prove it agianst the Rams.

Chargers -13 vs Raiders- One of the two easiest plays I see on Sunday going in. The Raiders have a lot of injuries and the way the Chargers are scoring they could have the cover with just 5 minutes gone by in the first quarter, but since the Chargers always explode in the second half, 5 minutes into the third quarter.

The other easy play Colts -9 vs Eagles- The Eagles barely did anything against the Titans after Mcnabb went down and I don't see that changing this week. The Colts are coming off a good loss and the last three times the Colts have played the Eagles, they have outscored them 125-40 and Mcnabb played in two of those games.

greek 11:25 sat nite

Over 48 NO/Atl

Atl has given up 24+ pts 5 of last 6. NO has given up 24+ pts 4 of last 5. Im lookin at a 34-27 game.