But....a hot streak *is* factored into it, i.e. the one they're currently on. That has raised their overall win %, correct?

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Also, Twins losses are good.


If there is a playoff...its a best of 1 series.

Whoever wins that first and only game, will have a leg up in this race. They will have a 1.000 Winning pct in 2010 playin games, while the other team will have a .000 Winning Pct.

Taking those numbers to the lab, it looks like the 1.000 pct team would win that game.

Since every game (whether part of a hot streak or a losing streak) is a part of the season...yes. But no more than any other game played in April or May.

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Go Cubs!!!!

Steve is working feverishly in his lab...

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Steve, you're starting with the premise that this Twins team playing under .500 over a 24 game stretch would represent some kind of epic and historical collapse. In reality it would just be a bad 24 game run and the Twins have had those this season.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

That would be nice. I've got to admit though. If both teams play to the statistical averages for the rest of the season, I don't think the Sox will make the playoffs.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

The biggest obstacle I see after pouring over these numbers is the Twins currently having more wins.

Although, thats an opinion

I don't think it would represent an "epic collapse" for the Twins to lose more than they win in their final 24 games. However, I don't find it to be likely. If a team has won 13 of their last 15 series' and tied another, so as to have lost just 1 series.... for them to be expected to suddenly lose more than half of their remaining 8 series, is against the odds for sure. For a team that has won 30/41 to suddenly lose more than they win of the final 24 games...unlikely. Plus, the Twins are getting guys healthy again and that just makes the team stronger and more likely to win. I'm not saying it's impossible and teams have come back in far more dramatic fashion than would be required here. But I just don't see the Twins cooperating in such a scenario. Plus, I don't see the Sox continuing to win as they have of late (8/10) either. But at least it's been kept interesting and entertaining...

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Go Cubs!!!!

No way in hell the Twins keep playing like they are. Also, who could imagine that the Sox would go win 7 straight on the road.

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" THis poster said it's 90% that Bernstein goes national. He put a percentage on it. " - Beardown

When 3.5 games seperate two teams and there's more than 4 games remaining, ain't nothing over man. And we've seen that time and time again in history so that means it is absolutely possible that it can happen. Putting the team in their coffin before they're dead could be a big fucking mistake.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

That's true. In hindsight, when the Twins beat the Sox in two series within about two weeks of each other, they really helped the total wins while hurting the total wins of the White Sox. If the Sox had won those two series, we may be looking at a completely different scenario. The Twins would have less wins and the White Sox would have more wins and as has become clear recently, the more wins you have, the more likely you are to have more wins than another team.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

This sounds like something that would come out of the mouth of Joe Morgan.

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Twins went 12-15 in June of 2010 A.D.


Thats 27 games. They won 3 less than they lost.


Thats a .444 winning pct

.500 > .444

Last season the Twins won 16 of their last 20 games.

Currently the Twins have won 30/41

The Twins seem to be a team that plays it's best down the stretch. What makes you believe that will NOT happen the rest of this season???

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Go Cubs!!!!

Holy shit! If the Twins play .444 from here on out, the Sox are actually the favorites.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Because one season is not comparable to the next?

Because the Twins played home games indoors last season.

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That can address the 16/20 they won down the stretch in 2009. How about the 30 they have won in their last 41? How about going 13-1-1 in their last 15 series"?

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Go Cubs!!!!

Yeah, they played poorly that month. They have played fantastic of late (30/ 41) . To expect either to be the way they play the remainder of the season, is probably not realistic. To use their winning % established for the ENTIRE season to date, is a lot more likely to be a more fair/accurate way to determine their final record.

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Go Cubs!!!!

i address that as- they're on a hot streak that is above their winning percentage so far, and thus is not likely to continue. 16/20 down the stretch in 2009 has absolutely nothing to do with September of 2010

So far this season, the Twins are a better team at home in Target Field than they were in the old dome:

Twins home record:

2010: 46-23 .667
2009: 49-33 .598

I recall an article last year which debunked the Twins having a home field advantage in the Metrodome vs league average home field advantage. Looks like they are getting the 1st season in a new stadium bump, however.

If you're tuning into the game tonight on WCIU 26 The U at 6p, you'll notice a familiar face in the booth with Steve Stone. He's Tom Paciorek, who sat in earlier this season with Ed Farmer while Darrin Jackson was away on 670 The SCORE & the TOYOTA Chicago White Sox Radio Network. Apparently, there are family issues with Ken Harrelson, and will likely miss the rest of this series in Detroit.

The Sox have their work cut out for them tonight, with Verlander going tonight in Detroit vs Garcia. Freddy Garcia has been bothered by a sore back of late and his velocity was down in his last few starts. He's 11-5 on the season, but his ERA is a bloated 4.82. He has done pretty well in his 4 starts vs Detroit, going 2-0 with a 4.01 ERA. However, now with the back problems...
Verlander is 14-8 on the season and has an ERA of 3.61. His record in home games is 9-3, with a sparkling 2.63 ERA.

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Go Cubs!!!!

He wasn't. He based his math off their current run. Noway in hell is that conservative.

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His problem is dead brother in-law.

Next time I will read the rest of the thread before posting.

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Verlander career vs Sox
5-9, 4.87 ERA
1.28 WHIP
19HR allowed
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play- ... |pitch|IP|



Also, the Sox are an MLB best 53-27 since June 9.

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^^ Some interesting numbers there. I was going to post that memory serves that the Sock has lit up Verlander a few times in the past.

Freddy is kind of scary right now, he's had some gutty performances in his wins, but usually you can tell pretty early when he's gonna get rocked. I would think everyone in the pen would be available outside of Sale.

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1926-1931-1934-1942-1944-1946-1964-1967-1982-2006-2011

Bullshit. You don't know what you're talking about. The numbers have ALWAYS been determined by extrapolating the winning percentage accumulated over the entire season to date. That percentage now stands at .587 if you figure that percentage over 162 games, it comes out to 95.094 . The number does change as the season goes on and the winning percentage changes, however at no time did the Twins record since the All-Star break/ their last 10 games (8-2) /or last 41 games (30-11) figure more prominently into the equation. I always used the entire season to date, with no game meaning more than another. . It was always a figure drawn from the extrapolation of the entire seasonal record to date. A loss in April means as much as a win during the current winning streak.

Try again...

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Go Cubs!!!!