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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:56 pm 
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tommy wrote:
DAC wrote:
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Not sure what the consensus is on this but I would much rather go with someone like Scherzer for the HOF than Sabathia. While Sabathia will have many more wins, Scherzer already has seasons of WAR of 6.4, 6.9, 7.1, and a currently a 7.1 for this season. Sabathia's highest was 6.4. If he wins the CY Young this year it will give him 3 to Sabathia's 1. Give me a 5 year span of being one of the top 3 pitchers in the game over a lengthy career with a couple great seasons sprinkled in.



Sabathia (and Mussina) had more than a few great seasons, though.

There's also something to be said consistency as a pitcher over 15 or so years. Being able to guarantee 15-19 wins is worth as much as anything else in baseball today.

Scherzer has been pretty dominant, though. If he stays healthy, he'll get there.


When I say great I mean top 5 in the entire league. Sabathia only had 3 seasons with a WAR above 6 and everything else was under 5 with only 2 seasons in the 4-range.


Fuck WAR. I seen 'em pitch.


I like a comparison to the rest of the league. I don't see them all pitch.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:34 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
tommy wrote:
Scherzer has been pretty dominant, though. If he stays healthy, he'll get there.


But there's a realistic chance he will end up with lower career WAR than Tommy John or Mark Buehrle.


Huh?

I've long said WAR is absolutely a useless stat but I don't see how that's possible ..unless Scherzer pitches til he's 49

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:35 pm 
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DAC wrote:
Not sure what the consensus is on this but I would much rather go with someone like Scherzer for the HOF than Sabathia. While Sabathia will have many more wins, Scherzer already has seasons of WAR of 6.4, 6.9, 7.1, and a currently a 7.1 for this season. Sabathia's highest was 6.4. If he wins the CY Young this year it will give him 3 to Sabathia's 1. Give me a 5 year span of being one of the top 3 pitchers in the game over a lengthy career with a couple great seasons sprinkled in.



Both HOF ... But Scherzer is better than C.C.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:53 pm 
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DAC wrote:
tommy wrote:
DAC wrote:
tommy wrote:
DAC wrote:
Not sure what the consensus is on this but I would much rather go with someone like Scherzer for the HOF than Sabathia. While Sabathia will have many more wins, Scherzer already has seasons of WAR of 6.4, 6.9, 7.1, and a currently a 7.1 for this season. Sabathia's highest was 6.4. If he wins the CY Young this year it will give him 3 to Sabathia's 1. Give me a 5 year span of being one of the top 3 pitchers in the game over a lengthy career with a couple great seasons sprinkled in.



Sabathia (and Mussina) had more than a few great seasons, though.

There's also something to be said consistency as a pitcher over 15 or so years. Being able to guarantee 15-19 wins is worth as much as anything else in baseball today.

Scherzer has been pretty dominant, though. If he stays healthy, he'll get there.


When I say great I mean top 5 in the entire league. Sabathia only had 3 seasons with a WAR above 6 and everything else was under 5 with only 2 seasons in the 4-range.


Fuck WAR. I seen 'em pitch.


I like a comparison to the rest of the league. I don't see them all pitch.

Just came back to respond to my clipped and bitchy post--was gonna say something like this.

One reason I point to longevity, though, is Dave Stewart. (Hell, even Jack McDowell or Oswalt or Jake Arrieta.) Great end to his career, outstanding in the playoffs, a workhorse, but didn't even get 10%.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:57 pm 
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312player wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
tommy wrote:
Scherzer has been pretty dominant, though. If he stays healthy, he'll get there.


But there's a realistic chance he will end up with lower career WAR than Tommy John or Mark Buehrle.


Huh?

I've long said WAR is absolutely a useless stat but I don't see how that's possible ..unless Scherzer pitches til he's 49


Huh? You don't seem to grasp how WAR works. How about this- we can bet right now that Scherzer won't pass Rick Reuschel in career WAR.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:04 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
tommy wrote:
Scherzer has been pretty dominant, though. If he stays healthy, he'll get there.


But there's a realistic chance he will end up with lower career WAR than Tommy John or Mark Buehrle.

Should Tommy John be in?


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:05 pm 
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tommy wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
tommy wrote:
Scherzer has been pretty dominant, though. If he stays healthy, he'll get there.


But there's a realistic chance he will end up with lower career WAR than Tommy John or Mark Buehrle.

Should Tommy John be in?


He's borderline at best. I'd probably have him in ahead of Jack Morris though.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:13 pm 
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RR was before my time, He appears to have 2 seasons at a quick glance that can compete with Max.. I'm the one who just stated War = worthless.

Do you believe RR is equal to or better - worse than Max?

RR was also a career NL guy

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:17 pm 
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312player wrote:
RR was before my time, He appears to have 2 seasons at a quick glance that can compete with Max.. I'm the one who just stated War = worthless.

Do you believe RR is equal to or better - worse than Max?

RR was also a career NL guy


No, the point is that using WAR as a baseline for the Hall is silly.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:19 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
312player wrote:
RR was before my time, He appears to have 2 seasons at a quick glance that can compete with Max.. I'm the one who just stated War = worthless.

Do you believe RR is equal to or better - worse than Max?

RR was also a career NL guy


No, the point is that using WAR as a baseline for the Hall is silly.



Agree.. I've never put jack shit into WAR as a stat, You just confirmed that you agree WAR is dogshit.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:20 pm 
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Also, if Scherzer's career ended tomorrow, is he more deserving of enshrinement than Gooden or Stieb?

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:21 pm 
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312player wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
312player wrote:
RR was before my time, He appears to have 2 seasons at a quick glance that can compete with Max.. I'm the one who just stated War = worthless.

Do you believe RR is equal to or better - worse than Max?

RR was also a career NL guy


No, the point is that using WAR as a baseline for the Hall is silly.



Agree.. I've never put jack shit into WAR as a stat, You just confirmed that you agree WAR is dogshit.


I wouldn't say it's dogshit, but it is a counting stat, just an aggregate counting stat.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:23 pm 
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It's dogshit..look no further than the Guppy..I've tried to find that thread and couldn't..please bump

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:29 pm 
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312player wrote:
It's dogshit..look no further than the Guppy..I've tried to find that thread and couldn't..please bump



Samardzija has never had a 3 WAR season. He's at about 12 for his career. WAR doesn't tell you anything about a pitcher you didn't already know.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:07 am 
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War for pitchers is better as a season to season comparison against other pitchers. Counting up for an entire career skews the usefulness.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:27 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Also, if Scherzer's career ended tomorrow, is he more deserving of enshrinement than Gooden or Stieb?

Stieb seems like a weird name to throw out. Especially for a W-L guy like yourself.

I have Gooden is way above Stieb. Gooden should be in. (But I have a soft spot for guys who were unbelievable dominant for a stretch)


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:42 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Also, if Scherzer's career ended tomorrow, is he more deserving of enshrinement than Gooden or Stieb?

Stieb seems like a weird name to throw out. Especially for a W-L guy like yourself.

I have Gooden is way above Stieb. Gooden should be in. (But I have a soft spot for guys who were unbelievable dominant for a stretch)



I think Stieb is about .560 and played for some shitty teams. I think if we look at the entire body of work, it's hard to say Gooden was better than Stieb. Of course, Gooden may have had the best single season any pitcher ever had.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:52 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Also, if Scherzer's career ended tomorrow, is he more deserving of enshrinement than Gooden or Stieb?

Stieb seems like a weird name to throw out. Especially for a W-L guy like yourself.

I have Gooden is way above Stieb. Gooden should be in. (But I have a soft spot for guys who were unbelievable dominant for a stretch)



I think Stieb is about .560 and played for some shitty teams. I think if we look at the entire body of work, it's hard to say Gooden was better than Stieb. Of course, Gooden may have had the best single season any pitcher ever had.

Also, Gooden scores very high on the WOW factor. I mean that has to be part of it, imo. Watching him in his prime and then even later when he regained some of that form was awesome.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:13 am 
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pittmike wrote:
War for pitchers is better as a season to season comparison against other pitchers. Counting up for an entire career skews the usefulness.


Agreed. Way too much emphasis is put on W/L. deGrom is having one of the best seasons in the league and his record is 7-7.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:15 am 
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DAC wrote:
pittmike wrote:
War for pitchers is better as a season to season comparison against other pitchers. Counting up for an entire career skews the usefulness.


Agreed. Way too much emphasis is put on W/L. deGrom is having one of the best seasons in the league and his record is 7-7.



Who is the great starter with a .500 career record? Can you name just one please?

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:19 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
pittmike wrote:
War for pitchers is better as a season to season comparison against other pitchers. Counting up for an entire career skews the usefulness.


Agreed. Way too much emphasis is put on W/L. deGrom is having one of the best seasons in the league and his record is 7-7.



Who is the great starter with a .500 career record? Can you name just one please?

Be hard to for a career, but for individual seasons, sure.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:29 am 
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tommy wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
pittmike wrote:
War for pitchers is better as a season to season comparison against other pitchers. Counting up for an entire career skews the usefulness.


Agreed. Way too much emphasis is put on W/L. deGrom is having one of the best seasons in the league and his record is 7-7.



Who is the great starter with a .500 career record? Can you name just one please?

Be hard to for a career, but for individual seasons, sure.


Right, but nobody goes into the Hall off one season.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:45 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
pittmike wrote:
War for pitchers is better as a season to season comparison against other pitchers. Counting up for an entire career skews the usefulness.


Agreed. Way too much emphasis is put on W/L. deGrom is having one of the best seasons in the league and his record is 7-7.



Who is the great starter with a .500 career record? Can you name just one please?


That's a terrible point. Over the course of a career a HOF pitcher will consistently give his team a much higher chance of winning which will result in that pitcher having a winning record. But there are many examples of a pitcher having an excellent season with a near .500 record due to low run support. deGrom is your example this year.

And to answer your question- Nolan Ryan had a career record of 324-292 which works out to an average record of 12-11 over his 27-year career.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:51 am 
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DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
pittmike wrote:
War for pitchers is better as a season to season comparison against other pitchers. Counting up for an entire career skews the usefulness.


Agreed. Way too much emphasis is put on W/L. deGrom is having one of the best seasons in the league and his record is 7-7.



Who is the great starter with a .500 career record? Can you name just one please?


That's a terrible point. Over the course of a career a HOF pitcher will consistently give his team a much higher chance of winning which will result in that pitcher having a winning record. But there are many examples of a pitcher having an excellent season with a near .500 record due to low run support. deGrom is your example this year.

And to answer your question- Nolan Ryan had a career record of 324-292 which works out to an average record of 12-11 over his 27-year career.



It's not a terrible point. And do we have to go over again how "run support" doesn't exist? It's just a pitcher that you're supposed to be better than pitching better than you did.

Anyway, Nolan Ryan is far from a great pitcher. He was a spectacular pitcher. He is a special guy in that he is the hardest pitcher to hit. But that's where the confusion is in the way the game is looked at in the computer analytics era- the idea that a "pitcher's job is to miss bats." That isn't a pitcher's job at all.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:08 pm 
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Yes there are anomalies from season to season but over a career you see who is a winner and who is a loser.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:33 pm 
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Terry's Peeps wrote:
Yes there are anomalies from season to season but over a career you see who is a winner and who is a loser.

But run support DOES exist. JORR incorrectly believes all offenses are essentially the same.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:35 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Terry's Peeps wrote:
Yes there are anomalies from season to season but over a career you see who is a winner and who is a loser.

But run support DOES exist. JORR incorrectly believes all offenses are essentially the same.


Yes. Over the course of a career it all basically balances out.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:38 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Terry's Peeps wrote:
Yes there are anomalies from season to season but over a career you see who is a winner and who is a loser.

But run support DOES exist. JORR incorrectly believes all offenses are essentially the same.



"Run support" is nothing more than the (usually smaller) amount of runs allowed by a guy you are insisting isn't as good as the guy you are defending.

Within the space of a single game most offenses are indistinguishable. When you factor in the pitcher you are insisting is "great", all the advantage should be in favor of your guy in the vast majority of his starts.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:39 pm 
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Terry's Peeps wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Terry's Peeps wrote:
Yes there are anomalies from season to season but over a career you see who is a winner and who is a loser.

But run support DOES exist. JORR incorrectly believes all offenses are essentially the same.


Yes. Over the course of a career it all basically balances out.

Unless you pitch for the White Sox in the 1960s


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:41 pm 
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tommy wrote:
Terry's Peeps wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Terry's Peeps wrote:
Yes there are anomalies from season to season but over a career you see who is a winner and who is a loser.

But run support DOES exist. JORR incorrectly believes all offenses are essentially the same.


Yes. Over the course of a career it all basically balances out.

Unless you pitch for the White Sox in the 1960s



But that's a good example. There is a connection between the fact that those Sox pitchers all had low ERAs and the fact that their offense was low scoring. That's why the W/L records are important. A park can hold the offensive numbers down, but one starter will pitch better than the other.

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